NFL.com just published an article in which their analysts picked which teams will make the playoffs based on the first half of the season, so I figured I’d do the same. Below are my midseason playoff predictions, along with the teams I picked at the beginning of the season so you can reference how wrong I was.
AFC North
- Midseason Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
- Preseason Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have not skipped a beat without star RB Le’Veon Bell due to the emergence of RB James Conner (who is single-handedly keeping my fantasy football team in my league’s playoff picture). The Steelers’ opponent this week, the Baltimore Ravens, even had their defensive coordinator come out this week and say that stats reflect the Steelers being better without Bell. Defenses win championships, but offenses win the regular season and with or without Bell, the Steelers have the best offense in the AFC North. Watch out for the Ravens come playoff time, though, because if they can make it, their defense is one of the best in the biz.
AFC West
- Midseason Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
- Preseason Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
I will be completely honest: I did not see Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes coming like this. I figured he’d be a capable starter because coach Andy Reid isn’t dumb enough to part with a quality vet such as QB Alex Smith without an equally capable replacement but…WOW. Similar case here as with the AFC North, the Chiefs have far and away the best offense in the division and, therefore, will win it. I like the Chargers for their defense and they may do something special in the playoffs if they can make it there.
AFC East
- Midseason Pick: New England Patriots
- Preseason Pick: New England Patriots
As they do every season, the Pats started slow to try to trick us into believing Father Time had finally caught QB Tom Brady and his Pats. They’re picking up the pace now, in case you missed the shootout they won against Pat Mahomes’ Chiefs. Honestly, I think the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets have better defenses, but if you assembled the best possible offense from all three of the Bills, Jets, and Miami Dolphins rosters, that offense STILL couldn’t come ANYWHERE NEAR keeping up with Brady & Co. So, it’s the Pats’ division to lose once again.
AFC South
- Midseason Pick: Houston Texans
- Preseason Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
I want to stick with my preseason pick in the Jags, but it’s clear that QB Blake Bortles no longer feels he has anything to play for after getting his contract extension based on last season’s performance. I do think the Jags will get RB Leonard Fournette back at some point and the team will pick it up, but by that time they will likely be too far behind the Jags to catch up. Unlike Bortles, Texans coach Bill O’Brien has a lot to play for because he still hasn’t gotten his team over the hump, and his coaching this season has reflected that. It’s also clear that QB Deshaun Watson and DE JJ Watt want to prove their injuries from last season will not hamper their production at all moving forward.
AFC Wildcard 1
- Midseason Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
- Preseason Pick: Houston Texans
This one’s easy. The Chargers have made it to the midway point (well, technically not quite since they already had their bye week) with just two losses: one to the 8-0 Los Angeles Rams, and the other to the 7-1 Kansas City Chiefs. They are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL and that, combined with the fact that the injury bug has not hit them too hard as of yet (knock on wood), should be more than enough to get them to the postseason.
AFC Wildcard 2
- Midseason Pick: Baltimore Ravens
- Preseason Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The AFC East behind the Pats is out because none of their offenses are good enough (at least not yet). The AFC West behind the Chiefs and Chargers is facing a similar issue (although, it’s more of a defensive issue for the Oakland Raiders). The Cleveland Browns are out because they are still the Browns, as the firing of coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley proved. That leaves me with: the Cincinnati Bengals, the Tennessee Titans, the Indianapolis Colts, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Ravens. I knocked out the Bengals because I really don’t believe in Marvin Lewis. Eventually the Bengals will see what I see. The Titans are out because they lack offense. The Colts are out because they lack everything not named Andrew Luck. Suddenly I’m down to two. I REALLY wanted to pick the Jags just for the sake of keeping all six of my preseason AFC picks in the playoffs, but I thought it might be better to keep it a little more interesting and go a different direction. The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the league, ranking first in both yards per game allowed, as well as points per game allowed. QB Joe Flacco is playing above average, too, so I’m going Ravens over Jags for the last playoff spot in the AFC.
NFC North
- Midseason Pick: Minnesota Vikings
- Preseason Pick: Green Bay Packers
I’m big enough to admit when I was wrong. Leaving the Vikes out of the playoffs was probably my boldest prediction in my preseason playoff predictions. Through the first few weeks, it looked like I was correct. However, they have proven to be the most balanced team in the division, so I think they’ll pull it out after all. Don’t sleep on the Chicago Bears, though. If QB Mitch Trubisky and RB Jordan Howard can find some consistency they can easily steal this one from the Vikes because the Bears have the superior defense.
NFC West
- Midseason Pick: Los Angeles Rams
- Preseason Pick: Los Angeles Rams
I just admitted I was wrong, so now I’m going to admit I was right. SPOT ON PICK HERE. This one probably doesn’t need explaining, so I’ll keep it short: the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers both suck (how about QB Nick Mullens, though? You like that!?), and the Seattle Seahawks don’t have a viable running game (even from QB Russell Wilson) yet.
NFC East
- Midseason Pick: Washington Redskins
- Preseason Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility for any of the ‘Skins, Eagles, or Dallas Cowboys to win the division. Based on the trades all three teams made before the trade deadline (the Redskins got S HaHa Clinton-Dix, the Eagles acquired WR Golden Tate, and the Cowboys picked up WR Amari Cooper) they seem to believe that, too. The Eagles have the passing game, the Cowboys have the defense, and the Redskins have the balance. So, I’m going Redskins. I also thought they improved the most with their trade.
NFC South
- Midseason Pick: Carolina Panthers
- Preseason Pick: Atlanta Falcons
As fun as Fitzmagic is, it takes more than magic to reach the NFL playoffs (it’s also probably going to take more than magic to save coach Dirk Koetter’s job in Tampa Bay). Atlanta has been hit with the Los Angeles Chargers’ injury bug this season. The logical pick here is New Orleans, but I really like the Panthers. I think offensive coordinator Norv Turner is having some serious fun cooking up schemes for massive, mobile QB Cam Newton and versatile RB Christian McCaffrey. The unit seems to get better every week, especially with the recent return of TE Greg Olsen and emerging rookie WR DJ Moore. While the Saints currently possess the division’s best offense, I don’t think the Panthers are that far behind. I DO think the Panthers have a much better defense than the Saints this season.
NFC Wildcard 1
- Midseason Pick: New Orleans Saints
- Preseason Pick: New Orleans Saints
Even if my gut pick of the Panthers winning the NFC South comes to fruition, there is no way this insanely talented Saints team will miss out on the playoffs this season.
NFC Wildcard 2
- Midseason Pick: Chicago Bears
- Preseason Pick: Dallas Cowboys
In the North, there are the modern-era Monsters of the Midway and Aaron Rodgers. In the West, there is DangeRUSS. In the East, there are the reigning Super Bowl Champs. In the South, there is Fitzmagic and that team that blew a TWENTY-FIVE POINT LEAD IN THE SUPER BOWL (sorry, I’m a little salty that the Falcons are blowing this season this bad when I expected such great things out of them, even if it is due to injury). There are a lot of teams with legitimate shots at this spot with half the season to go. I’m going to make my friend happy (and my dad not so much) by taking the best defense in the conference to carry it’s inconsistent offense into the playoffs. First-year head coach Matt Nagy won’t have to buy himself any beers during the offseason if that happens.